According to a study by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the collapse of the U.S. power system due to an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack could impact 130 million Americans and require 4 to 10 years to fully recover, with economic costs ranging from $1 to $2 trillion. The National electric grid has almost no backup capability in the event of a power collapse from EMPs.
The Threat of EMPs to the U.S. Power Grid
EMPs, whether caused by a natural solar event or a man-made attack, pose a serious threat to the U.S. power grid. A high-altitude EMP (HEMP) from a nuclear detonation or an intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) device can cause widespread damage to electronic equipment and the power grid. Geomagnetic disturbances from solar activity can also induce currents in long transmission lines, leading to transformer damage and grid collapse.
The Oak Ridge study, commissioned by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Department of Energy, and Department of Homeland Security, found that a severe geomagnetic storm similar to the 1921 event could damage or destroy over 300 bulk power system transformers, causing widespread and long-lasting outages. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) also concluded that a severe geomagnetic disturbance could lead to voltage instability and collapse, with recovery times measured in hours or days.
Rebuilding the Grid After an EMP
Rebuilding the power grid after a catastrophic EMP event would be a daunting task. The Oak Ridge study estimates that it could take 4 to 10 years to fully recover, with economic costs ranging from $1 to $2 trillion. The average yearly cost of installing equipment to mitigate an EMP event is estimated at less than 20 cents per year for the average residential customer, but little has been done to reduce the grid’s vulnerability.
The U.S. Department of Energy has developed an EMP Resilience Action Plan in coordination with the electric power industry, focusing on assessing damage, providing notification, ensuring communications survivability, and setting realistic restoration priorities. However, more work is needed to harden the grid and develop the capability to quickly assess and recover from an EMP attack.